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If Nate Adkins is out, who gets his targets?
The Denver Broncos room absorbs +0.47 receptions, and Evan Engram takes the largest single share at +0.24. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton WR · 79% snaps | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| Jaylen Waddle WR · 70% snaps | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| RJ Harvey RB · 44% snaps | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| Pat Bryant WR · 65% snaps | 2.40 | 2.40 | +0.00 |
| Evan Engram TE · 58% snaps | 2.10 | 2.34 | +0.24 |
| Troy Franklin WR · 24% snaps | 1.90 | 1.90 | +0.00 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. WR · 18% snaps | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
| Jonah Coleman RB · 23% snaps | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Badie RB · 22% snaps | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Nate Adkins TE · 32% snaps | 1.10 | — | OUT |
| Adam Trautman TE · 47% snaps | 1.10 | 1.33 | +0.23 |
| J.K. Dobbins RB · 42% snaps | 0.90 | 0.90 | +0.00 |
| Kolbe Katsis WR · 0% snaps | 0.90 | 0.90 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Nate Adkins’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection