6′5″, 247 lb · age 27 · Washington · 2022 draft, round 4
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs PIT: Cade Otton caught 1 of 2 targets for 4 yards on 100% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Cade Otton is averaging 3.2 receptions and 31 receiving yards on 95% of snaps, against 3.7 receptions and 36 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 7.7 PPR points, TE22 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
7.7
TE22 this week
Receptions
3.5
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
35
Anytime TD
17%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Cade Otton snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.5 projected
26 wk6
PIT
100%
4.9%
2
1
4
0
3.8 -2.8
26 wk5
DAL
92%
16.0%
4
3
25
0
4.0 -1.0
26 wk4
GB
95%
23.1%
6
4
37
0
3.9 +0.1
26 wk3
MIN
94%
17.1%
6
3
56
0
4.1 -1.1
26 wk2
CLE
89%
18.2%
6
5
38
0
—
26 wk1
CIN
98%
18.5%
5
3
26
0
—
25 wk18
CAR
96%
40.9%
9
7
94
1
—
25 wk17
MIA
97%
9.1%
4
4
33
0
—
25 wk16
CAR
94%
8.0%
2
2
15
0
—
25 wk14
NO
81%
14.3%
4
3
19
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
13 of 18
72%
5+ receptions
5 of 18
28%
7+ receptions
3 of 18
17%
50+ receiving yards
5 of 18
28%
75+ receiving yards
3 of 18
17%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 18
6%
Cade Otton 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Cade Otton has 19 catches for 186 receiving yards (3.2 catches and 31.0 yards a game), on 95% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2022–2025 (67 games)
Catches per game
3.2
3.4
Receiving yards per game
31.0
33.8
Target share
16.3%
14.1%
Cade Otton 2025 stats
In 2025 Cade Otton had 59 catches for 572 yards over 16 games, with 1 touchdown, on 94% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016