Sun Oct 11, at NO: T.J. Hockenson caught 1 of 1 target for 7 yards on 3% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season T.J. Hockenson is averaging 4.6 receptions and 40 receiving yards on 61% of snaps, against 3.4 receptions and 29 receiving yards over 15 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 8.8 PPR points, TE17 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
8.8
TE17 this week
Receptions
3.4
0.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
38
Anytime TD
21%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
T.J. Hockenson snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.4 projected
26 wk5
NO
3%
3.4%
1
1
7
0
0
0
4.5 -3.5
26 wk4
MIA
83%
39.4%
13
13
119
0
0
0
3.5 +9.5
26 wk3
TB
85%
16.0%
4
2
11
0
0
0
3.5 -1.5
26 wk2
CHI
69%
21.1%
4
3
29
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
GB
66%
21.7%
5
4
36
0
0
1
—
25 wk16
NYG
75%
4.3%
1
1
2
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
DAL
80%
20.8%
5
4
66
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
WAS
56%
13.0%
3
2
12
0
0
1
—
25 wk13
SEA
79%
20.7%
6
6
59
0
0
0
—
25 wk12
GB
68%
22.2%
4
4
19
1
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
11 of 17
65%
5+ receptions
4 of 17
24%
7+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 17
12%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 17
24%
T.J. Hockenson 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, T.J. Hockenson has 23 catches for 202 receiving yards (4.6 catches and 40.4 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 61% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2019–2025 (99 games)
Catches per game
4.6
4.5
Receiving yards per game
40.4
46.8
Target share
20.3%
18.8%
T.J. Hockenson 2025 stats
In 2025 T.J. Hockenson had 51 catches for 438 yards over 15 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 78% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016