6′3″, 240 lb · age 27 · Duke · 2021 draft, round 5
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs LAC: Noah Gray caught 3 of 3 targets for 53 yards on 64% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Noah Gray is averaging 1.8 receptions and 23 receiving yards on 60% of snaps, against 1.3 receptions and 11 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 4.5 PPR points, TE38 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
4.5
TE38 this week
Receptions
2.1
0.8 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
22
Anytime TD
10%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Noah Gray snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.1 projected
26 wk6
LAC
64%
10.3%
3
3
53
0
1.9 +1.1
26 wk4
LV
68%
11.1%
3
2
17
0
1.5 +0.5
26 wk3
MIA
63%
13.0%
3
3
39
0
1.1 +1.9
26 wk2
IND
50%
2.3%
1
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
DEN
55%
4.0%
1
1
5
0
—
25 wk18
LV
56%
16.7%
5
3
30
0
—
25 wk17
DEN
49%
5.0%
1
1
2
0
—
25 wk16
TEN
51%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
LAC
38%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
HOU
45%
10.3%
3
1
14
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 18
17%
5+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
0 of 18
0%
Noah Gray 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Noah Gray has 9 catches for 114 receiving yards (1.8 catches and 22.8 yards a game), on 60% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2021–2025 (95 games)
Catches per game
1.8
1.5
Receiving yards per game
22.8
14.6
Target share
8.2%
6.1%
Noah Gray 2025 stats
In 2025 Noah Gray had 21 catches for 178 yards over 16 games, on 52% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016