Sun Oct 18, at NYG: Noah Fant was targeted once without a catch on 58% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Noah Fant is averaging 1.8 receptions and 15 receiving yards on 53% of snaps, against 2.3 receptions and 19 receiving yards over 15 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 5.1 PPR points, TE35 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
5.1
TE35 this week
Receptions
2.2
0.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
15
Anytime TD
20%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Noah Fant snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.2 projected
26 wk6
NYG
58%
3.3%
1
0
0
0
2.4 -2.4
26 wk5
MIN
67%
4.2%
1
1
7
0
2.3 -1.3
26 wk3
LV
57%
10.0%
4
4
33
2
2.0 +2.0
26 wk2
BAL
44%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
DET
41%
15.4%
8
4
33
1
—
25 wk18
CLE
22%
2.6%
1
1
5
0
—
25 wk17
ARI
22%
3.0%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
BAL
24%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
BUF
42%
5.6%
2
1
15
0
—
25 wk13
BAL
42%
4.5%
2
1
3
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
8 of 17
47%
5+ receptions
2 of 17
12%
7+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 17
24%
Noah Fant 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Noah Fant has 9 catches for 73 receiving yards (1.8 catches and 14.6 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 53% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2019–2025 (111 games)
Catches per game
1.8
3.0
Receiving yards per game
14.6
32.5
Target share
6.6%
13.0%
Noah Fant 2025 stats
In 2025 Noah Fant had 34 catches for 288 yards over 15 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 38% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016