Sun Oct 18, at NYG: Treyton Welch played 4% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Treyton Welch has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
0.6
TE99 this week
Receptions
0.1
Receiving yards
4
Anytime TD
0%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 0 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Treyton Welch snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.1 projected
26 wk6
NYG
4%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.1 -0.1
26 wk4
ATL
9%
2.1%
1
0
0
0
0.2 -0.2
26 wk2
BAL
7%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
DET
11%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
ATL
10%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
TEN
9%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk3
SEA
5%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 5 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 5
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 5
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 5
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 5
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 5
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 5
0%
Scored a touchdown
0 of 5
0%
Treyton Welch 2026 stats
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2025–2025 (3 games)
Catches per game
0.0
0.0
Receiving yards per game
0.0
0.0
Target share
0.5%
0.0%
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016