Sun Oct 18, vs NO: Malik Nabers caught 12 of 15 targets for 165 yards on 86% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Malik Nabers has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 5 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
15.9
WR6 this week
Receptions
6.5
2.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
65
Anytime TD
36%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 3 and 10 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Malik Nabers snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
6.5 projected
26 wk6
NO
86%
34.9%
15
12
165
0
5.5 +6.5
26 wk5
WAS
90%
38.5%
20
11
121
1
4.0 +7.0
26 wk4
ARI
76%
24.1%
7
6
112
1
3.6 +2.4
26 wk3
TEN
78%
28.6%
6
5
26
0
3.4 +1.6
26 wk2
LA
74%
12.5%
4
1
1
0
—
26 wk1
DAL
52%
31.0%
9
6
69
0
—
25 wk4
LAC
33%
15.0%
3
2
20
0
—
25 wk3
KC
92%
23.3%
7
2
13
0
—
25 wk2
DAL
99%
32.5%
13
9
167
2
—
25 wk1
WAS
94%
37.5%
12
5
71
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 6 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 6
50%
5+ receptions
3 of 6
50%
7+ receptions
1 of 6
17%
50+ receiving yards
3 of 6
50%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 6
17%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 6
17%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 6
17%
Malik Nabers 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Malik Nabers has 41 catches for 494 receiving yards (6.8 catches and 82.3 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 76% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2024–2025 (19 games)
Catches per game
6.8
6.7
Receiving yards per game
82.3
77.6
Target share
28.3%
33.9%
Malik Nabers 2025 stats
In 2025 Malik Nabers had 18 catches for 271 yards over 4 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 80% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016