5′9″, 183 lb · age 26 · Boston College · 2023 draft, round 1
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, at CLE: Zay Flowers caught 6 of 11 targets for 66 yards on 88% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Zay Flowers is averaging 6.4 receptions and 94 receiving yards on 61% of snaps, against 5.1 receptions and 71 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 16.1 PPR points, WR5 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
16.1
WR5 this week
Receptions
5.7
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
77
Anytime TD
33%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Zay Flowers snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
5.7 projected
26 wk6
CLE
88%
35.5%
11
6
66
1
1
0
5.4 +0.6
26 wk5
ATL
82%
29.0%
9
8
53
1
13
0
4.7 +3.3
26 wk4
TEN
73%
34.5%
10
8
118
0
0
1
4.1 +3.9
26 wk3
DAL
33%
30.0%
6
5
84
1
20
0
4.3 +0.7
26 wk1
IND
29%
25.0%
6
5
150
0
0
1
—
25 wk18
PIT
98%
35.3%
6
4
138
0
0
2
—
25 wk17
GB
68%
25.0%
5
4
30
0
0
1
—
25 wk16
NE
89%
35.0%
7
7
84
1
18
1
—
25 wk15
CIN
78%
41.7%
5
3
68
0
0
1
—
25 wk14
PIT
92%
33.3%
11
8
124
1
2
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
16 of 18
89%
5+ receptions
11 of 18
61%
7+ receptions
6 of 18
33%
50+ receiving yards
14 of 18
78%
75+ receiving yards
8 of 18
44%
100+ receiving yards
4 of 18
22%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 18
33%
Zay Flowers 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Zay Flowers has 32 catches for 471 receiving yards (6.4 catches and 94.2 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 61% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2023–2025 (52 games)
Catches per game
6.4
4.7
Receiving yards per game
94.2
63.2
Target share
30.8%
26.3%
Zay Flowers 2025 stats
In 2025 Zay Flowers had 86 catches for 1,211 yards over 17 games, with 6 touchdowns, on 86% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016