Sun Oct 11, at ATL: Chris Moore played 9% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 4 games this season Chris Moore is averaging 0.8 receptions and 16 receiving yards on 38% of snaps, against 0.8 receptions and 15 receiving yards over 14 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 2.6 PPR points, WR111 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
2.6
WR111 this week
Receptions
0.3
0.5 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
14
Anytime TD
14%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
His snap share is down, but he is on the injury report, so the drop is not read as a smaller role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Chris Moore snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.3 projected
26 wk5
ATL
9%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.8 -0.8
26 wk3
DAL
52%
5.0%
1
1
4
1
1.0 +0.0
26 wk2
NO
55%
10.3%
3
1
6
0
—
26 wk1
IND
37%
8.3%
2
1
53
0
—
25 wk18
PHI
33%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
DAL
18%
4.8%
1
1
15
0
—
25 wk16
PHI
22%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
DEN
28%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk11
MIA
82%
17.2%
5
2
28
0
—
25 wk10
DET
20%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
1 of 16
6%
5+ receptions
0 of 16
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 16
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 16
12%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 16
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 16
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 16
6%
Chris Moore 2026 stats
Through 4 games of 2026, Chris Moore has 3 catches for 63 receiving yards (0.8 catches and 15.8 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 38% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2016–2025 (125 games)
Catches per game
0.8
1.2
Receiving yards per game
15.8
15.3
Target share
5.9%
6.1%
Chris Moore 2025 stats
In 2025 Chris Moore had 11 catches for 207 yards over 14 games, with 1 touchdown, on 49% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016