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Adonai Mitchell

New York Jets · Wide receiverWR1

6′2″, 205 lb · age 24 · Texas; Georgia · 2024 draft, round 2

Week 2 stats

Sun Sep 20, vs GB: Adonai Mitchell caught 6 of 12 targets for 63 yards on 82% of snaps.

Stats through week 2; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.

Through 2 games this season Adonai Mitchell is averaging 4.5 receptions and 62 receiving yards on 75% of snaps, against 2.1 receptions and 28 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 2.4 PPR points, WR114 this week.

Week 7 projection

PPR points
2.4
WR114 this week
Receptions
2.5
0.5 above his 2025 average
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

12%022%122%218%312%47%54%678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

Adonai Mitchell snap share, game by game

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk7—————————2.5 projected
26 wk2GB82%33.3%12663000—
26 wk1TEN69%13.0%3360000—
25 wk18BUF52%13.6%300000—
25 wk17NE81%28.1%9322000—
25 wk16NO86%17.6%6343000—
25 wk15JAX79%28.1%96581-41—
25 wk14MIA91%18.8%6124000—
25 wk13ATL86%38.7%128102001—
25 wk12BAL85%25.9%7242000—
25 wk11NE49%23.1%6110000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions7 of 1839%
5+ receptions3 of 1817%
7+ receptions1 of 186%
50+ receiving yards5 of 1828%
75+ receiving yards2 of 1811%
100+ receiving yards1 of 186%
Scored a touchdown2 of 1811%

Adonai Mitchell 2026 stats

Through 2 games of 2026, Adonai Mitchell has 9 catches for 123 receiving yards (4.5 catches and 61.5 yards a game), on 75% of snaps.

Against the rest of his career

2026 so far (2 games)2024–2025 (33 games)
Catches per game4.51.7
Receiving yards per game61.523.2
Target share23.2%13.2%

Adonai Mitchell 2025 stats

In 2025 Adonai Mitchell had 33 catches for 453 yards over 16 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 51% of snaps.

Season by season

Adonai Mitchell: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Adonai Mitchell: targets and catches per game by season0246810202420252026TargetsCatchesSeason
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Adonai Mitchell: yards per game by season02040608018.4202428.3202561.52026
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
Adonai Mitchell: touchdowns per game by season00.050.10.150.0020240.1220250.002026
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Adonai Mitchell sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NYJ room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole New York Jets roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

Related players

The rest of the New York Jets receiver room, by target share.

Ranked next to him at WR for week 7.

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 7