Sun Oct 11, vs CLE: Tim Patrick caught 2 of 3 targets for 26 yards on 93% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 6 projection below. Checked Oct 13, 2026. Full game log.
Through 1 game this season Tim Patrick is averaging 2.0 receptions and 26 receiving yards on 93% of snaps, against 0.9 receptions and 11 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 6 the model projects 4.0 PPR points, WR89 this week.
Week 6 projection
PPR points
4.0
WR89 this week
Receptions
1.5
0.7 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
26
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Tim Patrick snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk6
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.5 projected
26 wk5
CLE
93%
10.3%
3
2
26
0
—
25 wk19
BUF
27%
3.3%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
TEN
36%
3.2%
1
1
4
0
—
25 wk17
IND
17%
2.7%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
DEN
26%
2.9%
1
1
11
0
—
25 wk15
NYJ
42%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
IND
66%
19.4%
6
5
78
1
—
25 wk13
TEN
11%
4.0%
1
1
11
0
—
25 wk12
ARI
47%
13.3%
4
0
0
0
—
25 wk11
LAC
58%
18.2%
4
3
20
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
2 of 17
12%
5+ receptions
1 of 17
6%
7+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 17
6%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 17
6%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
3 of 17
18%
Tim Patrick 2026 stats
Through 1 game of 2026, Tim Patrick has 2 catches for 26 receiving yards (2.0 catches and 26.0 yards a game), on 93% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (1 game)
2018–2025 (89 games)
Catches per game
2.0
2.2
Receiving yards per game
26.0
29.3
Target share
10.3%
10.9%
Tim Patrick 2025 stats
In 2025 Tim Patrick had 15 catches for 187 yards over 17 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 31% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
7 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016