6′0″, 195 lb · age 23 · Utah State · 2025 draft, round 4
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs LAC: Jalen Royals caught 2 of 4 targets for 24 yards on 74% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Jalen Royals is averaging 1.0 receptions and 8 receiving yards on 43% of snaps, against 0.3 receptions and 1 receiving yards over 7 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 3.9 PPR points, WR86 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
3.9
WR86 this week
Receptions
1.6
1.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
13
Anytime TD
17%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Jalen Royals snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.6 projected
26 wk6
LAC
74%
13.8%
4
2
24
0
1.3 +0.7
26 wk4
LV
63%
7.4%
2
0
0
0
0.7 -0.7
26 wk3
MIA
19%
4.3%
1
1
11
0
0.5 +0.5
26 wk2
IND
15%
4.7%
2
2
6
1
—
26 wk1
DEN
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
LV
67%
10.0%
3
2
4
0
—
25 wk17
DEN
12%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
TEN
7%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk7
LV
20%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk6
DET
2%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 9
11%
Jalen Royals 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Jalen Royals has 5 catches for 41 receiving yards (1.0 catches and 8.2 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 43% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2025–2025 (7 games)
Catches per game
1.0
0.3
Receiving yards per game
8.2
0.6
Target share
6.0%
1.4%
Jalen Royals 2025 stats
In 2025 Jalen Royals had 2 catches for 4 yards over 7 games, on 19% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016