Rashee Rice

Kansas City Chiefs · Wide receiverWR2

6′1″, 203 lb · age 26 · SMU · 2023 draft, round 2

Week 4 stats

Sun Oct 4, at LV: Rashee Rice played 10% of snaps without a touch.

Stats through week 4; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.

Through 4 games this season Rashee Rice is averaging 3.2 receptions and 48 receiving yards on 62% of snaps, against 6.6 receptions and 71 receiving yards over 8 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 10.1 PPR points, WR33 this week.

Week 7 projection

PPR points

10.1

WR33 this week

Receptions

4.5

2.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

15%

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

Rashee Rice snap share, game by game

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.5 projected
26 wk4	LV	10%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.0 -5.0
26 wk3	MIA	77%	39.1%	9	7	88	0	0	0	5.1 +1.9
26 wk2	IND	79%	14.0%	6	4	83	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	DEN	83%	8.0%	2	2	19	0	0	1	—
25 wk15	LAC	85%	36.7%	11	7	51	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	HOU	78%	27.6%	8	4	34	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	DAL	89%	37.5%	12	8	92	1	2	2	—
25 wk12	IND	62%	27.9%	12	8	141	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	DEN	76%	20.9%	9	6	38	0	0	0	—
25 wk9	BUF	82%	24.1%	7	4	80	2	6	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 10 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	9 of 10	90%
5+ receptions	6 of 10	60%
7+ receptions	5 of 10	50%
50+ receiving yards	6 of 10	60%
75+ receiving yards	5 of 10	50%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 10	10%
Scored a touchdown	5 of 10	50%

Rashee Rice 2026 stats

Through 4 games of 2026, Rashee Rice has 13 catches for 190 receiving yards (3.2 catches and 47.5 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 62% of snaps.

Against the rest of his career

	2026 so far (4 games)	2023–2025 (32 games)
Catches per game	3.2	5.7
Receiving yards per game	47.5	64.3
Target share	15.3%	22.5%

Rashee Rice 2025 stats

In 2025 Rashee Rice had 53 catches for 571 yards over 8 games, with 6 touchdowns, on 75% of snaps.

Season by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.

Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.

The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Rashee Rice sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the KC room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Kansas City Chiefs roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

Related players

The rest of the Kansas City Chiefs receiver room, by target share.

Ranked next to him at WR for week 7.

Rome Odunze WR30 · CHI
Jordan Addison WR31 · MIN
Jaylen Waddle WR32 · DEN
Keenan Allen WR34 · IND
Tre Tucker WR35 · LV
Wan'Dale Robinson WR36 · TEN

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 7