6′0″, 183 lb · age 26 · Ohio State · 2022 draft, round 1
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, at NE: Garrett Wilson caught 4 of 6 targets for 44 yards on 98% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Garrett Wilson is averaging 5.8 receptions and 70 receiving yards on 91% of snaps, against 5.1 receptions and 56 receiving yards over 7 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 14.0 PPR points, WR13 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
14.0
WR13 this week
Receptions
5.5
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
69
Anytime TD
39%
He is the third-down option, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.05 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Garrett Wilson snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
5.5 projected
26 wk6
NE
98%
20.7%
6
4
44
0
5.9 -1.9
26 wk5
CLE
93%
37.9%
11
7
104
1
5.7 +1.3
26 wk4
CHI
100%
26.7%
4
3
27
0
5.9 -2.9
26 wk3
DET
94%
36.1%
13
10
107
1
5.2 +4.8
26 wk2
GB
88%
19.4%
7
5
57
1
—
26 wk1
TEN
75%
30.4%
7
6
79
0
—
25 wk10
CLE
39%
27.3%
3
0
0
0
—
25 wk6
DEN
84%
50.0%
8
3
13
0
—
25 wk5
DAL
94%
22.7%
10
6
71
1
—
25 wk4
MIA
98%
29.6%
8
6
82
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
8 of 9
89%
5+ receptions
6 of 9
67%
7+ receptions
2 of 9
22%
50+ receiving yards
7 of 9
78%
75+ receiving yards
4 of 9
44%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
Scored a touchdown
5 of 9
56%
Garrett Wilson 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Garrett Wilson has 35 catches for 418 receiving yards (5.8 catches and 69.7 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 91% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2022–2025 (58 games)
Catches per game
5.8
5.4
Receiving yards per game
69.7
62.8
Target share
28.5%
28.1%
Garrett Wilson 2025 stats
In 2025 Garrett Wilson had 36 catches for 395 yards over 7 games, with 4 touchdowns, on 87% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016