Sun Oct 18, at PHI: Tetairoa McMillan caught 6 of 9 targets for 86 yards on 76% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Tetairoa McMillan is averaging 6.4 receptions and 94 receiving yards on 84% of snaps, against 4.2 receptions and 61 receiving yards over 18 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 14.4 PPR points, WR10 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
14.4
WR10 this week
Receptions
4.9
0.7 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
65
Anytime TD
42%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Tetairoa McMillan snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.9 projected
26 wk6
PHI
76%
25.7%
9
6
86
0
5.0 +1.0
26 wk4
DET
89%
41.0%
16
14
192
2
4.2 +9.8
26 wk3
CLE
95%
11.9%
5
2
17
0
4.5 -2.5
26 wk2
ATL
80%
31.2%
10
5
101
0
—
26 wk1
CHI
82%
23.5%
8
5
75
0
—
25 wk19
LA
90%
18.9%
7
5
81
0
—
25 wk18
TB
88%
20.0%
6
4
85
0
—
25 wk17
SEA
83%
19.0%
4
1
5
0
—
25 wk16
TB
87%
32.3%
10
6
73
1
—
25 wk15
NO
84%
20.0%
4
2
25
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
16 of 20
80%
5+ receptions
10 of 20
50%
7+ receptions
2 of 20
10%
50+ receiving yards
12 of 20
60%
75+ receiving yards
7 of 20
35%
100+ receiving yards
3 of 20
15%
Scored a touchdown
5 of 20
25%
Tetairoa McMillan 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Tetairoa McMillan has 32 catches for 471 receiving yards (6.4 catches and 94.2 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 84% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2025–2025 (18 games)
Catches per game
6.4
4.2
Receiving yards per game
94.2
60.8
Target share
26.7%
25.4%
Tetairoa McMillan 2025 stats
In 2025 Tetairoa McMillan had 75 catches for 1,095 yards over 18 games, with 7 touchdowns, on 87% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016