Sun Oct 18, at PHI: John Metchie III caught 2 of 3 targets for 24 yards on 34% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 4 games this season John Metchie III is averaging 1.8 receptions and 20 receiving yards on 34% of snaps, against 2.1 receptions and 17 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 5.0 PPR points, WR73 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
5.0
WR73 this week
Receptions
1.5
0.5 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
19
Anytime TD
23%
He is used both near the goal line and on third down, roles that run slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.11 receptions.
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
John Metchie III snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.5 projected
26 wk6
PHI
34%
8.6%
3
2
24
0
0
0
1.6 +0.4
26 wk4
DET
37%
12.8%
5
3
37
0
0
0
1.1 +1.9
26 wk3
CLE
56%
11.9%
5
2
19
0
0
1
0.8 +1.2
26 wk2
ATL
11%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
BUF
71%
18.2%
4
3
20
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
NE
76%
9.4%
3
3
41
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
NO
86%
14.7%
5
1
4
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
JAX
74%
15.6%
5
4
25
1
4
0
—
25 wk14
MIA
97%
25.0%
8
4
34
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
ATL
97%
25.8%
8
4
19
1
-2
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
7 of 17
41%
5+ receptions
1 of 17
6%
7+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 17
6%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 17
12%
John Metchie III 2026 stats
Through 4 games of 2026, John Metchie III has 7 catches for 80 receiving yards (1.8 catches and 20.0 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 34% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2023–2025 (49 games)
Catches per game
1.8
1.7
Receiving yards per game
20.0
16.2
Target share
8.3%
8.8%
John Metchie III 2025 stats
In 2025 John Metchie III had 33 catches for 274 yards over 16 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 46% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016