Sun Oct 18, vs DAL: Matthew Golden caught 6 of 13 targets for 104 yards, 1 touchdown on 84% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Matthew Golden is averaging 5.0 receptions and 84 receiving yards on 83% of snaps, against 2.2 receptions and 30 receiving yards over 15 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 12.8 PPR points, WR18 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
12.8
WR18 this week
Receptions
4.2
2.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
61
Anytime TD
37%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Matthew Golden snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.2 projected
26 wk6
DAL
84%
32.5%
13
6
104
0
0
1
4.2 +1.8
26 wk5
CHI
77%
22.6%
7
6
123
0
0
0
3.6 +2.4
26 wk4
TB
88%
23.3%
7
3
21
1
6
1
3.6 -0.6
26 wk3
ATL
82%
23.5%
12
5
100
0
0
1
3.6 +1.4
26 wk2
NYJ
86%
20.7%
6
4
58
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
MIN
82%
30.0%
12
6
95
0
0
0
—
25 wk19
CHI
49%
13.2%
5
4
84
0
0
1
—
25 wk18
MIN
100%
30.0%
3
1
8
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
BAL
53%
12.0%
3
1
12
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
CHI
31%
4.2%
1
0
0
2
4
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
9 of 17
53%
5+ receptions
2 of 17
12%
7+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
50+ receiving yards
7 of 17
41%
75+ receiving yards
3 of 17
18%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 17
6%
Matthew Golden 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Matthew Golden has 30 catches for 501 receiving yards (5.0 catches and 83.5 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 83% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2025–2025 (15 games)
Catches per game
5.0
2.2
Receiving yards per game
83.5
29.7
Target share
25.4%
12.4%
Matthew Golden 2025 stats
In 2025 Matthew Golden had 33 catches for 445 yards over 15 games, with 1 touchdown, on 53% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016