6′5″, 260 lb · age 28 · Youngstown State · 2022 draft, round 6
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs TEN: Andrew Ogletree played 36% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Andrew Ogletree is averaging 0.2 receptions and 1 receiving yards on 27% of snaps, against 0.3 receptions and 2 receiving yards over 15 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 0.6 PPR points, TE94 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
0.6
TE94 this week
Receptions
0.2
0.0 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
2
Anytime TD
5%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Andrew Ogletree snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.2 projected
26 wk6
TEN
36%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.5 -0.5
26 wk5
PIT
27%
2.3%
1
1
4
0
0.3 +0.7
26 wk4
WAS
29%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.3 -0.3
26 wk3
HOU
30%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.3 -0.3
26 wk2
KC
29%
3.3%
1
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
BAL
11%
3.4%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
SF
8%
5.6%
2
1
11
0
—
25 wk15
SEA
15%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
JAX
19%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
HOU
22%
4.0%
1
1
8
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 17
6%
Andrew Ogletree 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Andrew Ogletree has 1 catches for 4 receiving yards (0.2 catches and 0.7 yards a game), on 27% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (44 games)
Catches per game
0.2
0.5
Receiving yards per game
0.7
6.4
Target share
1.5%
3.2%
Andrew Ogletree 2025 stats
In 2025 Andrew Ogletree had 4 catches for 27 yards over 15 games, with 1 touchdown, on 24% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016