Sun Oct 18, at IND: Calvin Ridley was targeted 2 times without a catch on 61% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Calvin Ridley is averaging 0.8 receptions and 14 receiving yards on 54% of snaps, against 2.4 receptions and 43 receiving yards over 7 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 3.6 PPR points, WR93 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
3.6
WR93 this week
Receptions
1.4
1.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
21
Anytime TD
6%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Calvin Ridley snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.4 projected
26 wk6
IND
61%
9.1%
2
0
0
0
1.4 -1.4
26 wk5
HOU
56%
8.6%
3
2
33
0
1.6 +0.4
26 wk4
BAL
47%
7.1%
2
1
13
0
1.7 -0.7
26 wk3
NYG
33%
2.9%
1
0
0
0
2.3 -2.3
26 wk2
PHI
62%
11.8%
2
2
35
0
—
26 wk1
NYJ
64%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk11
HOU
2%
2.8%
1
1
13
0
—
25 wk6
LV
10%
2.9%
1
1
18
0
—
25 wk5
ARI
66%
27.0%
10
5
131
0
—
25 wk4
HOU
54%
13.0%
3
2
30
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 9
33%
5+ receptions
1 of 9
11%
7+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 9
22%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 9
11%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 9
11%
Scored a touchdown
0 of 9
0%
Calvin Ridley 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Calvin Ridley has 5 catches for 81 receiving yards (0.8 catches and 13.5 yards a game), on 54% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2018–2025 (90 games)
Catches per game
0.8
4.5
Receiving yards per game
13.5
63.1
Target share
6.6%
21.0%
Calvin Ridley 2025 stats
In 2025 Calvin Ridley had 17 catches for 303 yards over 7 games, on 57% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
8 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016