Sun Oct 18, vs PIT: Tez Johnson caught 2 of 3 targets for 7 yards on 34% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Tez Johnson is averaging 1.2 receptions and 24 receiving yards on 34% of snaps, against 1.8 receptions and 20 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 3.8 PPR points, WR91 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
3.8
WR91 this week
Receptions
1.6
0.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
20
Anytime TD
3%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Tez Johnson snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.6 projected
26 wk6
PIT
34%
7.3%
3
2
7
0
0
0
1.4 +0.6
26 wk5
DAL
39%
4.0%
1
1
64
0
0
0
1.6 -0.6
26 wk4
GB
56%
7.7%
2
2
17
1
10
0
1.0 +1.0
26 wk3
MIN
23%
5.7%
2
1
8
0
0
0
0.8 +0.2
26 wk2
CLE
29%
12.1%
4
1
49
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
CIN
23%
3.7%
1
0
0
1
-4
0
—
25 wk18
CAR
13%
4.5%
1
1
17
1
5
0
—
25 wk17
MIA
16%
4.5%
2
2
19
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
CAR
25%
4.0%
1
1
-1
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
ATL
22%
3.1%
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
5 of 18
28%
5+ receptions
1 of 18
6%
7+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 18
11%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 18
22%
Tez Johnson 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Tez Johnson has 7 catches for 145 receiving yards (1.2 catches and 24.2 yards a game), on 34% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2025–2025 (16 games)
Catches per game
1.2
1.8
Receiving yards per game
24.2
20.1
Target share
6.8%
8.6%
Tez Johnson 2025 stats
In 2025 Tez Johnson had 28 catches for 322 yards over 16 games, with 5 touchdowns, on 47% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016