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JT

Jalen Tolbert

Miami Dolphins · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 13 games last season Jalen Tolbert averaged 1.4 receptions and 16 yards on 51% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.4
1.0 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
3
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

72%019%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.4 projected
26 wk3KC16%0.0%0000—
25 wk18NYG38%4.3%1000—
25 wk17WAS62%22.2%84310—
25 wk13KC25%0.0%0000—
25 wk11LV18%3.1%1000—
25 wk9ARI10%0.0%0000—
25 wk8DEN19%5.7%22471—
25 wk7WAS49%6.7%21160—
25 wk6CAR91%2.9%1180—
25 wk5NYJ77%3.6%1000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions3 of 1323%
5+ receptions0 of 130%
7+ receptions0 of 130%
50+ receiving yards1 of 138%
75+ receiving yards0 of 130%
100+ receiving yards0 of 130%
Scored a touchdown1 of 138%

Career by season

Jalen Tolbert: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far10.00.00.0016%0.0%
2025131.415.62.6151%7.1%
2024172.935.94.6776%12.6%
2023181.214.92.1240%5.5%
202280.21.50.4017%1.2%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Miami Dolphins roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4