6′4″, 241 lb · age 22 · Bowling Green · 2025 draft, round 3
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs BAL: Harold Fannin Jr. caught 1 of 3 targets for 9 yards on 89% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Harold Fannin Jr. is averaging 3.2 receptions and 28 receiving yards on 88% of snaps, against 4.5 receptions and 46 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 9.8 PPR points, TE12 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
9.8
TE12 this week
Receptions
3.7
0.8 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
42
Anytime TD
32%
He is the third-down option, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.05 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Harold Fannin Jr. snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.7 projected
26 wk6
BAL
89%
12.0%
3
1
9
0
0
0
3.9 -2.9
26 wk5
NYJ
93%
12.5%
4
1
4
0
0
0
4.4 -3.4
26 wk4
PIT
89%
15.2%
5
3
27
0
0
1
4.5 -1.5
26 wk3
CAR
86%
30.0%
9
7
51
0
0
2
4.1 +2.9
26 wk2
TB
86%
20.0%
6
5
54
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
JAX
82%
13.6%
3
2
21
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
PIT
23%
8.7%
2
2
30
0
0
1
—
25 wk16
BUF
86%
22.2%
6
4
34
1
1
2
—
25 wk15
CHI
96%
45.2%
14
7
48
1
2
0
—
25 wk14
TEN
90%
28.9%
11
8
114
0
0
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
14 of 18
78%
5+ receptions
7 of 18
39%
7+ receptions
4 of 18
22%
50+ receiving yards
5 of 18
28%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 18
11%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 18
6%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 18
33%
Harold Fannin Jr. 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Harold Fannin Jr. has 19 catches for 166 receiving yards (3.2 catches and 27.7 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 88% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2025–2025 (16 games)
Catches per game
3.2
4.5
Receiving yards per game
27.7
45.7
Target share
17.2%
21.8%
Harold Fannin Jr. 2025 stats
In 2025 Harold Fannin Jr. had 72 catches for 731 yards over 16 games, with 7 touchdowns, on 76% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016