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A.J. Brown injury: status, history and who gets his targets if he is out

New England Patriots · Wide receiver · status this week: QUESTIONABLE (ESPN)

Checked Oct 21, 2026.

Over his 7 full seasons on record, A.J. Brown played 105 of 117 regular-season games (90%), and 2 of 6 so far in 2026. Season by season.

The New England Patriots room absorbs +1.27 receptions, and DeMario Douglas takes the largest single share at +0.29. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if A.J. Brown sitsDeMario Douglas+0.3WR 52% snapsEli Raridon+0.2TE 48% snapsHunter Henry+0.1TE 73% snapsTanner Arkin+0.1TE 22% snapsRhamondre Stevenson+0.1RB 57% snapsCorey Kiner+0.1RB 12% snapsReggie Gilliam+0.1RB 24% snapsRomeo Doubs+0.1WR 58% snapsTreVeyon Henderson+0.1RB 35% snapsCameron Latu+0.1TE 15% snapsMack Hollins+0.1WR 63% snapsKyle Williams-0.1WR 31% snapsEfton Chism III-0.2WR 45% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
A.J. Brown WR · 76% snaps3.60—OUT
Hunter Henry TE · 73% snaps3.103.25+0.15
Mack Hollins WR · 63% snaps3.003.05+0.05
DeMario Douglas WR · 52% snaps2.803.09+0.29
Romeo Doubs WR · 58% snaps2.402.52+0.12
Rhamondre Stevenson RB · 57% snaps2.202.33+0.13
Efton Chism III WR · 45% snaps2.101.88-0.22
Eli Raridon TE · 48% snaps2.002.16+0.16
Kyle Williams WR · 31% snaps1.401.34-0.06
TreVeyon Henderson RB · 35% snaps0.901.02+0.12
Corey Kiner RB · 12% snaps0.600.73+0.13
Reggie Gilliam RB · 24% snaps0.200.33+0.13
Tanner Arkin TE · 22% snaps0.200.35+0.15
Cameron Latu TE · 15% snaps0.100.22+0.12

Injury history

Over his 7 full seasons on record, A.J. Brown played 105 of 117 regular-season games (90%), and 2 of 6 so far in 2026.

SeasonTeamPlayedMissedListed outQuestionableInjuries listed
2026NE2 of 6401Ankle
2025PHI15 of 17210Hamstring
2024PHI13 of 17412Hamstring, Knee
2023PHI17 of 17000—
2022PHI17 of 17000—
2021TEN13 of 17421Chest, Hamstring, Knee
2020TEN14 of 16221Knee
2019TEN16 of 16000—

Regular season only. Games played counts games with at least one offensive snap; designations are from the official weekly injury report, which does not list players on injured reserve, so a long absence shows as missed games rather than as weeks listed out.

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

When a team’s number-one wide receiver does not play, what each position group gains:

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

A.J. Brown’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 7