Slate StatsNFLInjury impact

If Devaughn Vele is out, who gets his targets?

The New Orleans Saints room absorbs +0.88 receptions, and Chris Olave takes the largest single share at +0.22. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Devaughn Vele sitsChris Olave+0.2WR 85% snapsBryce Lance+0.2WR 74% snapsKevin Austin Jr.+0.2WR 6% snapsBarion Brown+0.2WR 6% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerNowIf outChange
Chris Olave WR · 85% snaps6.506.72+0.22
Devaughn Vele WR · 94% snaps3.90OUT
Juwan Johnson TE · 68% snaps3.803.80+0.00
Alvin Kamara RB · 29% snaps2.902.90+0.00
Travis Etienne RB · 56% snaps2.602.60+0.00
Bryce Lance WR · 74% snaps2.202.42+0.22
Noah Fant TE · 42% snaps2.002.00+0.00
Oscar Delp TE · 13% snaps0.900.90+0.00
Kevin Austin Jr. WR · 6% snaps0.700.92+0.22
Barion Brown WR · 6% snaps0.600.82+0.22
CJ Donaldson RB · 23% snaps0.500.50+0.00

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Devaughn Vele’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 3