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If George Pickens is out, who gets his targets?
The Dallas Cowboys room absorbs +0.91 receptions, and Ryan Flournoy takes the largest single share at +0.23. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Now | If out | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb WR · 78% snaps | 5.20 | 5.42 | +0.22 |
| George Pickens WR · 80% snaps | 5.10 | — | OUT |
| Jake Ferguson TE · 68% snaps | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Flournoy WR · 74% snaps | 3.30 | 3.53 | +0.23 |
| Javonte Williams RB · 76% snaps | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford TE · 30% snaps | 0.90 | 0.90 | +0.00 |
| KaVontae Turpin WR · 12% snaps | 0.80 | 1.03 | +0.23 |
| Luke Schoonmaker TE · 26% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Hunter Luepke RB · 22% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Mingo WR · 20% snaps | 0.60 | 0.83 | +0.23 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.584 | 1,537 | 11.16 |
| Tight ends | +0.175 | 1,080 | 3.33 |
| Backs | +0.113 | 1,011 | 2.00 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
George Pickens’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection