Tyler Goodson

Dallas Cowboys · Running backRB2

Over 11 games last season Tyler Goodson averaged 0.2 receptions and 1 yards on 6% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.6

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

-0

Rush attempts

5.6

Rushing yards

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.6 projected
26 wk3	BAL	15%	2.5%	1	1	-5	6	22	0	—
25 wk18	HOU	5%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	3	0	—
25 wk16	SF	8%	0.0%	0	0	0	3	9	0	—
25 wk15	SEA	—	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	JAX	1%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	HOU	—	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	KC	2%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk10	ATL	3%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	4	0	—
25 wk9	PIT	14%	4.2%	2	1	8	0	0	0	—
25 wk8	TEN	8%	0.0%	0	0	0	2	2	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 11 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 11	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 11	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 11	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 11	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 11	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 11	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 11	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	1	1.0	-5.0	1.0	6.0	22.0	0	15%	2.5%
2025	11	0.2	0.7	0.3	0.8	2.2	0	6%	0.7%
2024	16	0.7	3.8	0.9	2.0	9.6	2	13%	2.5%
2023	6	1.0	5.7	1.5	2.2	14.5	0	12%	4.9%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Dallas Cowboys roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4