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Sean Tucker

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Running backRB3

Over 17 games last season Sean Tucker averaged 0.5 receptions and 2 yards on 18% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.4
0.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
-1
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

73%019%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.4 projected
26 wk3MIN1%0.0%000000—
25 wk18CAR7%0.0%0004-40—
25 wk17MIA6%2.3%100280—
25 wk16CAR8%0.0%000431—
25 wk15ATL12%0.0%000471—
25 wk14NO16%0.0%0007291—
25 wk13ARI15%0.0%000200—
25 wk12LA37%6.5%21412420—
25 wk11BUF44%7.4%2234191063—
25 wk10NE32%4.7%21-29530—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 176%
5+ receptions0 of 170%
7+ receptions0 of 170%
50+ receiving yards0 of 170%
75+ receiving yards0 of 170%
100+ receiving yards0 of 170%
Scored a touchdown6 of 1735%

Career by season

Sean Tucker: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far10.00.00.00.00.001%0.0%
2025170.52.00.65.118.8818%1.9%
2024170.56.40.72.918.1313%2.0%
202340.52.20.53.85.8012%1.6%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Tampa Bay Buccaneers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4