Slate StatsNFLInjury impact

If Brevyn Spann-Ford is out, who gets his targets?

The Dallas Cowboys room absorbs +0.43 receptions, and Jake Ferguson takes the largest single share at +0.22. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Brevyn Spann-Ford sitsJake Ferguson+0.2TE 68% snapsLuke Schoonmaker+0.2TE 26% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerNowIf outChange
CeeDee Lamb WR · 78% snaps5.205.20+0.00
George Pickens WR · 80% snaps5.105.10+0.00
Jake Ferguson TE · 68% snaps3.703.92+0.22
Ryan Flournoy WR · 74% snaps3.303.30+0.00
Javonte Williams RB · 76% snaps2.802.80+0.00
Brevyn Spann-Ford TE · 30% snaps0.90OUT
KaVontae Turpin WR · 12% snaps0.800.80+0.00
Luke Schoonmaker TE · 26% snaps0.700.91+0.21
Hunter Luepke RB · 22% snaps0.700.70+0.00
Jonathan Mingo WR · 20% snaps0.600.60+0.00

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.1072,1602.29
Tight ends+0.4921,0249.57
Backs-0.0451,259-0.92

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Brevyn Spann-Ford’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 3