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Yards Per Carry Leaders — the Least Repeatable Rushing Stat

Yards per carry repeats at 0.14 between halves of the same season. It is the most quoted running-back statistic there is and one of the least predictive numbers in this entire dataset.

0 is a coin flip and 1 is a fixed property. Each bar is one measure correlated with itself across the same season. Opportunity sits at the top and efficiency at the bottom, and that ordering is the single most useful thing on this page.

Which backs gain the most per carry?

#	Player	Games	Yards per carry	Carries
1	Emari Demercado	42	6.37	131
2	Keaton Mitchell	28	6.17	138
3	Corey Grant	33	5.94	77
4	Dontrell Hilliard	51	5.92	100
5	Rashaad Penny	45	5.62	352
6	Isaiah Davis	31	5.62	73
7	Brandon Bolden	80	5.47	106
8	De'Von Achane	48	5.47	584
9	Jahmyr Gibbs	56	5.28	783
10	Raheem Mostert	104	5.06	842
11	Jordan Mason	60	5.05	412
12	Mike Boone	56	5.04	117
13	J.K. Dobbins	54	5.04	658
14	Pierre Strong	42	5.04	99
15	Nick Chubb	104	5.01	1,507
16	James Cook	78	5.01	1,045
17	Jalen Richard	89	5.00	267
18	Derrick Gore	15	5.00	57
19	Isaac Guerendo	23	5.00	84
20	Marcus Murphy	14	4.93	59

2016-2026, 16,735 player-games. only those with at least 50 carries, applied because the question set no minimum and a rate over a handful is not a ranking.

This season

#	Player	Games	Yards per carry	Carries
1	James Cook	3	5.97	58
2	Kenneth Walker III	3	5.54	65
3	Bijan Robinson	3	5.29	66
4	Jahmyr Gibbs	3	4.72	65
5	D'Andre Swift	3	4.69	54
6	Derrick Henry	3	4.56	66
7	Jonathan Taylor	3	3.91	66
8	Aaron Jones	3	3.90	52
9	Omarion Hampton	3	3.86	50
10	Cam Skattebo	3	3.54	50
11	Ashton Jeanty	3	3.27	63
12	Breece Hall	3	3.20	51

2026 so far. only those with at least 50 carries, applied because the question set no minimum and a rate over a handful is not a ranking.

What this number is worth

A carry's outcome depends on the blocking in front of it, the defenders in the box and one missed tackle. A season's worth of carries is not enough for the back's own contribution to separate from any of that.

Judge a back on volume. This project measured the whole offensive-line-versus-front matchup as worth about seven rushing yards a game between the best and worst cells, entirely through efficiency — while losing a starter moves his backup by twenty.

Split-half reliability 0.14 (0.24 projected to a full season) across 752 player-seasons, 2018–2025, every player with at least four games in each half of a season. Measured 2026-09-29 by tools/reliability_players.py; the boards above are built by the same query engine the assistant uses.

Snap Share Leaders — and Why It Is the Most Reliable Number in FantasyThe most repeatable thing a player does Target Share Leaders — the Best Receiving Signal There IsRepeats at 0.93 Targets Per Game LeadersRepeats at 0.92 Catches Per Game LeadersRepeats at 0.89