Slate Stats › NFL › Leaders

Touchdown Leaders — and Why Touchdowns Barely Repeat

Touchdowns per game repeats at 0.56 between halves of the same season — the least predictable thing a skill player does, against 0.89 for catches and 0.96 for snaps.

0 is a coin flip and 1 is a fixed property. Each bar is one measure correlated with itself across the same season. Opportunity sits at the top and efficiency at the bottom, and that ordering is the single most useful thing on this page.

Who scores the most, and does it carry?

#	Player	Games	Touchdowns per game
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	56	1.07
2	Jonathan Taylor	88	0.92
3	Christian McCaffrey	124	0.90
4	Todd Gurley	79	0.90
5	Derrick Henry	165	0.85
6	Kyren Williams	62	0.82
7	Antonio Brown	67	0.76
8	Davante Adams	163	0.75
9	De'Von Achane	48	0.73
10	Cam Skattebo	11	0.73
11	Melvin Gordon	100	0.72
12	Josh Jacobs	108	0.71
13	Ryan Mathews	13	0.69
14	Bijan Robinson	54	0.69
15	Ja'Marr Chase	88	0.68
16	Saquon Barkley	116	0.67
17	Alvin Kamara	135	0.67
18	James Conner	111	0.67
19	Joe Mixon	120	0.65
20	Ezekiel Elliott	141	0.64

2016-2026, 61,376 player-games. only those with at least 4 games, applied because the question set no minimum and a rate over a handful is not a ranking.

This season

#	Player	Games	Touchdowns per game
1	Derrick Henry	3	2.00
2	Jahmyr Gibbs	3	2.00
3	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	3	2.00
4	Amon-Ra St. Brown	3	1.67
5	Christian Watson	3	1.33
6	Jonathan Taylor	3	1.33
7	Kenneth Walker III	3	1.33
8	Bijan Robinson	3	1.00
9	Brock Bowers	1	1.00
10	CeeDee Lamb	3	1.00
11	Christian McCaffrey	3	1.00
12	Chuba Hubbard	3	1.00
13	Cody White	3	1.00
14	D'Andre Swift	3	1.00
15	Dallas Goedert	2	1.00

2026 so far. everyone who matched -- the usual four-game minimum was dropped because nobody in this window has played that many yet, so read a one or two game rate as the small sample it is.

What this number is worth

A touchdown needs the drive to reach the end zone and the ball to come to you at that moment. Both are largely decided by people other than the player who scores.

Expect a leader here to regress and a player with usage but no scores to catch up. The exception this project measured is situational rather than a trait: a backup running back inheriting a starter's role gains real scoring chances, because he inherits the goal-line work with them.

Split-half reliability 0.56 (0.72 projected to a full season) across 2,962 player-seasons, 2018–2025, every player with at least four games in each half of a season. Measured 2026-09-29 by tools/reliability_players.py; the boards above are built by the same query engine the assistant uses.

Snap Share Leaders — and Why It Is the Most Reliable Number in FantasyThe most repeatable thing a player does Target Share Leaders — the Best Receiving Signal There IsRepeats at 0.93 Targets Per Game LeadersRepeats at 0.92 Catches Per Game LeadersRepeats at 0.89