Over 9 games last season Luke McCaffrey averaged 1.2 receptions and 23 yards on 36% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.0 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
1.0
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
3
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.0 projected
26 wk3
SEA
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk9
SEA
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk8
KC
51%
10.0%
3
3
24
0
—
25 wk7
DAL
54%
6.5%
2
0
0
0
—
25 wk6
CHI
38%
4.2%
1
1
33
1
—
25 wk5
LAC
39%
8.7%
2
1
50
0
—
25 wk4
ATL
37%
12.5%
3
2
21
1
—
25 wk3
LV
36%
16.7%
3
3
56
1
—
25 wk2
GB
23%
2.5%
1
1
19
0
—
25 wk1
NYG
7%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
2 of 9
22%
5+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 9
22%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
Scored a touchdown
3 of 9
33%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0%
0.0%
2025
9
1.2
22.6
1.7
3
36%
6.8%
2024
20
0.9
8.4
1.2
0
34%
4.2%
3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016