Sun Oct 11, vs NYG: Van Jefferson played 5% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 5; the week 6 projection below. Checked Oct 13, 2026. Full game log.
Through 1 game this season Van Jefferson is averaging 0.0 receptions and 0 receiving yards on 5% of snaps, against 1.8 receptions and 22 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 6 the model projects 1.0 PPR points, WR143 this week.
Week 6 projection
PPR points
1.0
WR143 this week
Receptions
0.7
1.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
3
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Van Jefferson snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk6
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.7 projected
26 wk5
NYG
5%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
NO
31%
8.6%
3
3
46
0
—
25 wk16
KC
68%
7.4%
2
2
24
0
—
25 wk15
SF
58%
18.5%
5
1
43
0
—
25 wk14
CLE
73%
16.0%
4
2
17
0
—
25 wk13
JAX
75%
11.4%
4
3
20
0
—
25 wk12
SEA
91%
2.6%
1
1
11
0
—
25 wk11
HOU
92%
19.4%
7
3
22
1
—
25 wk9
LAC
83%
19.0%
4
1
21
0
—
25 wk8
IND
79%
21.6%
8
1
6
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
5 of 16
31%
5+ receptions
0 of 16
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 16
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 16
6%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 16
6%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 16
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 16
6%
Van Jefferson 2026 stats
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (1 game)
2020–2025 (100 games)
Catches per game
0.0
1.8
Receiving yards per game
0.0
24.1
Target share
0.0%
10.4%
Van Jefferson 2025 stats
In 2025 Van Jefferson had 29 catches for 350 yards over 16 games, with 1 touchdown, on 59% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016