6′3″, 248 lb · age 31 · Florida International · 2017 draft, round 3
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs DAL: Jonnu Smith played 12% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Jonnu Smith is averaging 0.8 receptions and 14 receiving yards on 28% of snaps, against 2.2 receptions and 12 receiving yards over 18 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 2.0 PPR points, TE65 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
2.0
TE65 this week
Receptions
0.7
1.5 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
9
Anytime TD
9%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Jonnu Smith snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.7 projected
26 wk6
DAL
12%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.9 -0.9
26 wk5
CHI
34%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.1 -1.1
26 wk4
TB
22%
3.3%
1
1
19
0
0
0
1.1 -0.1
26 wk3
ATL
33%
5.9%
3
2
16
0
0
0
1.6 +0.4
26 wk2
NYJ
22%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
MIN
47%
7.5%
3
2
50
0
0
0
—
25 wk19
HOU
53%
9.7%
3
2
-1
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
BAL
44%
4.5%
2
1
2
1
2
0
—
25 wk17
CLE
41%
13.5%
5
5
18
2
9
0
—
25 wk16
DET
38%
2.6%
1
0
0
2
28
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
8 of 20
40%
5+ receptions
2 of 20
10%
7+ receptions
0 of 20
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 20
5%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
Scored a touchdown
3 of 20
15%
Jonnu Smith 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Jonnu Smith has 5 catches for 85 receiving yards (0.8 catches and 14.2 yards a game), on 28% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2017–2025 (149 games)
Catches per game
0.8
2.4
Receiving yards per game
14.2
24.3
Target share
2.8%
11.4%
Jonnu Smith 2025 stats
In 2025 Jonnu Smith had 40 catches for 221 yards over 18 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 53% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016