6′3″, 246 lb · age 27 · Utah; Univ of California-San Diego · 2023 draft, round 1
The Buffalo Bills are on their bye in week 7, so there is no projection this week. His usage and history are below.
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, at LV: Dalton Kincaid caught 7 of 8 targets for 38 yards on 72% of snaps.
Stats through week 6. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Dalton Kincaid is averaging 3.8 receptions and 52 receiving yards on 68% of snaps, against 3.4 receptions and 49 receiving yards over 14 games last season.
Dalton Kincaid snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk6
LV
72%
26.7%
8
7
38
0
—
26 wk5
LA
70%
11.1%
2
1
7
0
3.7 -2.7
26 wk4
NE
59%
6.7%
2
1
7
0
3.9 -2.9
26 wk3
LAC
67%
11.5%
3
2
38
0
3.9 -1.9
26 wk2
DET
66%
28.6%
8
7
95
1
—
26 wk1
HOU
72%
21.4%
6
5
130
0
—
25 wk20
DEN
49%
15.4%
6
6
83
1
—
25 wk19
JAX
44%
14.3%
5
3
28
1
—
25 wk18
NYJ
13%
10.7%
3
3
48
0
—
25 wk16
CLE
38%
5.6%
1
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
12 of 16
75%
5+ receptions
6 of 16
38%
7+ receptions
1 of 16
6%
50+ receiving yards
6 of 16
38%
75+ receiving yards
5 of 16
31%
100+ receiving yards
3 of 16
19%
Scored a touchdown
8 of 16
50%
Dalton Kincaid 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Dalton Kincaid has 23 catches for 315 receiving yards (3.8 catches and 52.5 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 68% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (48 games)
Catches per game
3.8
3.7
Receiving yards per game
52.5
41.2
Target share
17.7%
17.2%
Dalton Kincaid 2025 stats
In 2025 Dalton Kincaid had 48 catches for 682 yards over 14 games, with 7 touchdowns, on 39% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016