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Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are on their bye in week 7, so there are no projections this week. Their season so far is below; the room and its projections return with next week's board. Buffalo Bills schedule.

Full Buffalo Bills depth chart — every player who took a snap, ranked by how many.

Also on the Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (quarterback), Tyler Bass (kicker), Buffalo Bills D/ST (defense).

What this staff chooses

The Buffalo Bills run more than the situation calls for: pass rate over expectation -3.8%, 23rd of 32, on 57 plays a game (24th). Raw pass rate is 52.5%, but that follows the scoreboard — a trailing team throws. PROE subtracts the league rate for the same down, distance and score, so what is left is the CHOICE.

Pass rate over expectation is the most repeatable offensive trait we measure: split the season into odd and even weeks and a team agrees with itself at 0.84. Most things a defense does sit near 0.32.

This seasonLeague rank
Pass rate over expectation-3.8%23rd
Plays per game56.824th
Points per game32.81st

The line, and the front it faces

The offensive line has allowed pressure on 20.4% of dropbacks (6th) and opened 3.27 yards before contact a carry (3rd). The defense pressures the quarterback on 25.5% of opposing dropbacks (16th).

This seasonLeague rank
Pressure allowed, per dropback20.4%6th
Yards before contact, per carry3.273rd
Pressure generated, per dropback25.5%16th

What this defense concedes

Of the passes thrown at the Buffalo Bills, 55% go to receivers, 24% to tight ends and 21% to backs. Opponents average 7.61 yards a target (20th).

Read this half with more caution than the half above. How a defense DISTRIBUTES the targets it faces repeats moderately — 0.34 for backs, 0.23 for receivers, 0.09 for tight ends. How many YARDS it allows a tight end per target repeats at 0.02, which is indistinguishable from chance. "Weak against tight ends" is the least reproducible claim in this dataset and one of the most repeated.

55%24%21%ReceiversTight endsBacks

Team figures from 6 games this season. Ranks are among the 32 teams on the same measure.

Season by season

This staff is running more than it has: pass rate over expectation -3.8% this season against -0.8% across the previous 10 seasons.

Buffalo Bills: pass rate over expectation by season-5051020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Over expectationseasonpercentage points over expected
Pass rate over expectation subtracts the league rate for the same down, distance and score, so it is what the STAFF chose rather than what the scoreboard forced. It repeats at 0.84 (Spearman-Brown), the most reliable offensive trait measured in this project.
Buffalo Bills: points scored and allowed by season01020304020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026ScoredAllowedseasonpoints per game
Regular-season averages. Points scored carries further year to year than points allowed, which is the same asymmetry that runs through everything here: offense reproduces, defense mostly does not.

Pass rate over expectation from 2016; points from the same seasons. Each season is that season's regular-season average.

Ranked by trailing target share, tie-broken on snap share · concentration measured as a Herfindahl index over the tracked room · projections as-of-week with no lookahead