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If J.K. Dobbins is out, who gets his targets?
The Denver Broncos room absorbs +1.50 receptions, and Jonah Coleman takes the largest single share at +0.47. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton WR · 74% snaps | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
| Jaylen Waddle WR · 68% snaps | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| RJ Harvey RB · 51% snaps | 3.00 | 3.46 | +0.46 |
| Evan Engram TE · 57% snaps | 2.60 | 2.64 | +0.04 |
| Pat Bryant WR · 62% snaps | 2.50 | 2.50 | +0.00 |
| Troy Franklin WR · 27% snaps | 1.80 | 1.80 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Badie RB · 26% snaps | 1.50 | 1.96 | +0.46 |
| Jonah Coleman RB · 23% snaps | 1.30 | 1.77 | +0.47 |
| Adam Trautman TE · 51% snaps | 1.20 | 1.23 | +0.03 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. WR · 18% snaps | 1.20 | 1.20 | +0.00 |
| Nate Adkins TE · 31% snaps | 1.00 | 1.04 | +0.04 |
| J.K. Dobbins RB · 38% snaps | 0.90 | — | OUT |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR · 5% snaps | 0.50 | 0.50 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
J.K. Dobbins’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection