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If Braelon Allen is out, who gets his targets?
The New York Jets room absorbs +0.38 receptions, and Breece Hall takes the largest single share at +0.19. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Now | If out | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson WR · 82% snaps | 5.20 | 5.20 | +0.00 |
| Adonai Mitchell WR · 75% snaps | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Breece Hall RB · 62% snaps | 2.80 | 2.99 | +0.19 |
| Isaiah Williams WR · 71% snaps | 2.50 | 2.50 | +0.00 |
| Kenyon Sadiq TE · 39% snaps | 2.20 | 2.20 | +0.00 |
| Mason Taylor TE · 56% snaps | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Jeremy Ruckert TE · 38% snaps | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| Isaiah Davis RB · 0% snaps | 1.00 | 1.19 | +0.19 |
| Omar Cooper Jr. WR · 7% snaps | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| Braelon Allen RB · 36% snaps | 0.90 | — | OUT |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Braelon Allen’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection