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If Luke Farrell is out, who gets his targets?
The San Francisco 49ers room absorbs +0.42 receptions, and George Kittle takes the largest single share at +0.21. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Now | If out | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey RB · 54% snaps | 4.90 | 4.90 | +0.00 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · 51% snaps | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| George Kittle TE · 47% snaps | 3.90 | 4.11 | +0.21 |
| Mike Evans WR · 64% snaps | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Demarcus Robinson WR · 47% snaps | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Luke Farrell TE · 62% snaps | 1.10 | — | OUT |
| Jake Tonges TE · 12% snaps | 0.80 | 1.01 | +0.21 |
| Kaelon Black RB · 38% snaps | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.00 |
| Jacob Cowing WR · 27% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
| Jordan James RB · 15% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
| KhaDarel Hodge WR · 20% snaps | 0.50 | 0.50 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Luke Farrell’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection