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If Jonnu Smith is out, who gets his targets?
The Green Bay Packers room absorbs +0.22 receptions, and Tucker Kraft takes the largest single share at +0.22. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Now | If out | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson WR · 83% snaps | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| Tucker Kraft TE · 82% snaps | 3.70 | 3.92 | +0.22 |
| Matthew Golden WR · 84% snaps | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Jayden Reed WR · 30% snaps | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
| Jonnu Smith TE · 34% snaps | 1.60 | — | OUT |
| MarShawn Lloyd RB · 36% snaps | 1.10 | 1.10 | +0.00 |
| Chris Brooks RB · 51% snaps | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| J. Michael Sturdivant WR · 15% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Skyy Moore WR · 21% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
| Bo Melton WR · 14% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Jonnu Smith’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection