Slate StatsNFLInjury impact

If Jalen Nailor is out, who gets his targets?

The Las Vegas Raiders room absorbs +1.06 receptions, and Cody White takes the largest single share at +0.22. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Jalen Nailor sitsCody White+0.2WR 0% snapsTre Tucker+0.2WR 65% snapsJack Bech+0.2WR 47% snapsMalik Benson+0.2WR 12% snapsDareke Young+0.2WR 17% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerNowIf outChange
Michael Mayer TE · 82% snaps3.603.60+0.00
Ashton Jeanty RB · 78% snaps3.403.40+0.00
Tre Tucker WR · 65% snaps3.403.61+0.21
Jalen Nailor WR · 60% snaps2.40OUT
Jack Bech WR · 47% snaps2.002.21+0.21
Ian Thomas TE · 48% snaps1.101.10+0.00
Malik Benson WR · 12% snaps0.700.91+0.21
Dareke Young WR · 17% snaps0.600.81+0.21
Cody White WR · 0% snaps0.500.72+0.22

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Jalen Nailor’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 3