The Jacksonville Jaguars are on their bye in week 7, so there is no projection this week. His usage and history are below.
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs HOU: Brian Thomas Jr. was targeted 2 times without a catch on 21% of snaps.
Stats through week 6. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Brian Thomas Jr. is averaging 1.5 receptions and 18 receiving yards on 43% of snaps, against 3.3 receptions and 49 receiving yards over 15 games last season.
Brian Thomas Jr. snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk6
HOU
21%
4.9%
2
0
0
0
—
26 wk5
PHI
51%
7.9%
3
0
0
0
2.5 -2.5
26 wk4
CIN
62%
8.7%
2
2
17
1
2.7 -0.7
26 wk3
NE
37%
3.7%
1
1
8
0
3.1 -2.1
26 wk2
DEN
54%
28.6%
8
3
40
0
—
26 wk1
CLE
35%
14.3%
3
3
40
0
—
25 wk19
BUF
77%
6.7%
2
2
21
1
—
25 wk18
TEN
57%
16.1%
5
3
49
0
—
25 wk17
IND
78%
18.9%
7
4
39
0
—
25 wk16
DEN
73%
8.6%
3
2
18
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
12 of 17
71%
5+ receptions
2 of 17
12%
7+ receptions
1 of 17
6%
50+ receiving yards
6 of 17
35%
75+ receiving yards
3 of 17
18%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 17
24%
Brian Thomas Jr. 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Brian Thomas Jr. has 9 catches for 105 receiving yards (1.5 catches and 17.5 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 43% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2024–2025 (32 games)
Catches per game
1.5
4.3
Receiving yards per game
17.5
62.8
Target share
11.3%
22.2%
Brian Thomas Jr. 2025 stats
In 2025 Brian Thomas Jr. had 50 catches for 728 yards over 15 games, with 4 touchdowns, on 78% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016