Sun Oct 4, vs IND: Austin Ekeler ran 4 times for 29 yards, caught 1 for 11 on 27% of snaps.
Stats through week 4; the week 5 projection below. Checked Oct 8, 2026. Full game log.
Austin Ekeler has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 1 game of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 5 projection
PPR points
4.1
RB58 this week
Rush attempts
3.8
Rushing yards
24
Receptions
0.8
1.7 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
9
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Austin Ekeler snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk5
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.8 projected
26 wk4
IND
27%
5.6%
2
1
11
4
29
0
—
25 wk2
GB
52%
10.0%
4
2
7
8
17
0
—
25 wk1
NYG
47%
10.3%
3
3
31
6
26
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
Austin Ekeler 2026 stats
Through 1 game of 2026, Austin Ekeler has 4 carries for 29 rushing yards (29.0 a game) and 1 catches for 11 receiving yards (1.0 catches and 11.0 yards a game), on 27% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (1 game)
2017–2025 (121 games)
Catches per game
1.0
4.1
Receiving yards per game
11.0
36.5
Target share
5.6%
14.1%
Austin Ekeler 2025 stats
In 2025 Austin Ekeler had 14 carries for 43 yards and 5 catches for 38 yards over 2 games, on 50% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016