Slate StatsNFLInjury impact

If Ameer Abdullah is out, who gets his targets?

The Jacksonville Jaguars room absorbs +0.41 receptions, and Bhayshul Tuten takes the largest single share at +0.21. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Ameer Abdullah sitsBhayshul Tuten+0.2RB 50% snapsLeQuint Allen Jr.+0.2RB 8% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerNowIf outChange
Parker Washington WR · 71% snaps4.204.20+0.00
Jakobi Meyers WR · 78% snaps3.503.50+0.00
Brenton Strange TE · 76% snaps3.203.20+0.00
Brian Thomas Jr. WR · 44% snaps3.103.10+0.00
Bhayshul Tuten RB · 50% snaps1.401.61+0.21
Josh Cameron WR · 25% snaps1.001.00+0.00
Ameer Abdullah RB · 10% snaps0.90OUT
Nate Boerkircher TE · 53% snaps0.800.80+0.00
Quintin Morris TE · 32% snaps0.800.80+0.00
LeQuint Allen Jr. RB · 8% snaps0.500.70+0.20

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.1122,0942.36
Tight ends+0.1031,2582.16
Backs+0.6101,04211.17

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Ameer Abdullah’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 3