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If Ameer Abdullah is out, who gets his targets?
The Jacksonville Jaguars room absorbs +0.41 receptions, and Bhayshul Tuten takes the largest single share at +0.21. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Now | If out | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington WR · 71% snaps | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.00 |
| Jakobi Meyers WR · 78% snaps | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Brenton Strange TE · 76% snaps | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. WR · 44% snaps | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Bhayshul Tuten RB · 50% snaps | 1.40 | 1.61 | +0.21 |
| Josh Cameron WR · 25% snaps | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| Ameer Abdullah RB · 10% snaps | 0.90 | — | OUT |
| Nate Boerkircher TE · 53% snaps | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.00 |
| Quintin Morris TE · 32% snaps | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.00 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. RB · 8% snaps | 0.50 | 0.70 | +0.20 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Ameer Abdullah’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection